Mario Draghi may need to take action to stop money-market investors getting ahead of themselves.
For
the first time since 2008, overnight interbank
rates
are
starting to exceed the European Central Bank’s benchmark interest
rate, signaling a return to pre-crisis behavior even as the economy
remains fragile. That’s testing the ECB president’s promise that
officials are ready to respond to any unwarranted monetary
tightening.
While
rising market rates could be a sign of normalization
against
the backdrop of a healing euro-area economy, the risk is that they
increase loan costs for companies and households too fast and
endanger that recovery. Draghi may steer against exuberance as soon
as this week by deploying policies considered since last year, such
as ending the absorption of cash from crisis-era bond purchases,
according to banks including Societe Generale SA. “The
ECB believes only in a very gradual recovery,” said Anatoli
Annenkov, senior European economist at Societe Generale in London.
“From that perspective, they’d probably be happy to push
money-market rates as low as possible.” The ECB failed for a fourth
week to sterilize the liquidity created under the Securities Markets
Program today, signaling a preference by banks to hold on to funds in
a tightening market. The average cost of overnight,
unsecured lending
between
banks in the euro area was 0.254 percent last month, three times as
high as a year earlier. The measure, known as Eonia, spiked to 0.457
percent on April 29, the highest excluding month-end volatility since
2011. The ECB’s main refinancing rate has been at a record-low 0.25
percent since November.
In
normal times, when the ECB rations the funds it lends to the system,
Eonia hovers just above the benchmark rate as lenders unwilling to
pledge collateral for central-bank cash access the financial markets
for a small premium. That relationship broke down in October 2008, a
month after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., when the
ECB responded to the ensuing cash crunch by offering unlimited
funding against eligible collateral. The cost of 3-month funds, which
are more representative of borrowing for the real economy, is also
showing a revival. Euribor is about 10 basis points above the ECB’s
benchmark rate, the biggest spread since before the central bank
injected about 1 trillion euros ($1.4 trillion) into the financial
system at the end of 2011 via 3-year loans to banks. The trend could
simply be a sign that banks are becoming less reliant on the ECB as
the economy rebuilds, according to HSBC Holdings Plc.
Excess
liquidity
in
the euro-area financial system, or the cash above that needed for
normal functioning, has fallen as banks make early repayments of the
3-year loans. The indicator has dropped from more than 800 billion
euros in March 2012 to as low as 80 billion euros on April 29. It
rebounded to 177 billion euros yesterday. “There’s
volatility in the system, but it’s not 100 percent clear what the
reasons for it are,” said Annalisa Piazza, a fixed-income
strategist at Newedge Group in London. “If this volatility
continues for three or four weeks then the ECB could send the signal
it’s more structural and do something.” Tighter and more-volatile
markets increase the risk of what Draghi has described as a
“liquidity accident.” The 30-day historical
volatility
for
Eonia is the highest since at least 2004, an added concern for banks
already dealing with a yearlong health-check before the
Frankfurt-based ECB takes over supervision duties in November. Policy
makers meet in Brussels on May 8 to set monetary policy amid mixed
economic signals and an inflation rate that’s still less than half
their goal.
The
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said today that
“a further interest rate reduction is merited, given the low
inflation developments.” It cut its global growth forecast for this
year to 3.4 percent from 3.6 percent in its November report, and
predicted gross domestic product in the euro area will expand 1.2
percent in 2014, up from 1 percent in its November outlook. In a
speech
in
Amsterdam on April 24, Draghi said any “undue tightening” in the
monetary stance could be met with measures including an extension of
the policy of granting banks unlimited cash or offering new long-term
loans.
Executive
Board member Benoit Coeure, who is responsible for market operations,
has said the policy of meeting banks’ cash demands in weekly
auctions is the most-powerful tool to manage the functioning of the
market. The 7-day tender settled on April 30 added more than 50
billion euros to liquidity after the spike in rates the previous day.
Eonia dropped to 0.126 percent by yesterday. The ECB allotted 129.1
billion euros in its 7-day tender today, down from 172.6 the previous
week due to the decline in market rates in recent days.
The
central bank just missed absorbing its intended amount in the weekly
drain of liquidity added by the SMP purchases, attracting bids for
165.5 billion euros against a target of 167.5 billion. Halting the
operation would add about that amount of liquidity, reflecting the
value of outstanding bonds. Policy makers have so far declined to
take that step, with Draghi telling reporters in February that the
effects would be “relatively limited.” That provides an argument
for other options such as tweaking the marginal lending facility.
Cutting the penalty lending rate, currently at 0.75 percent, would
lower the effective ceiling for money markets and help rein in the
volatility, according to Benjamin Schroeder, a rates strategist at
Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt
who
says excess liquidity should be high enough to provide banks with an
adequate buffer. “The
ECB would need to target a daily level of a little above 100 billion
euros to keep Eonia steady just below the refinancing rate,”
Schroeder said. “The ECB should also increasingly mull over
liquidity interventions, such as stopping the SMP tender.”
While
the ECB could yet take unprecedented steps such as charging banks to
deposit cash overnight, economists view that as unlikely this month.
Just two of 53 respondents in a Bloomberg News survey predicted
the
deposit rate, which has been at zero since July 2012, will be cut.
Two out of 58 economists forecast
a
reduction in the key rate. “In
the past few weeks, we have seen increasing volatility in money
markets,” said Christian Reicherter, an analyst at DZ Bank AG in
Frankfurt. “Now the ECB needs to decide if they want normalization,
or if they have to do something.”
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